Churn and Retention Lifecycle

Customer state machine from active engagement through model-flagged risk, agent-driven intervention, and terminal outcomes

Churn and Retention Lifecycle Customer state machine from active engagement through model-flagged risk, agent-driven intervention, and terminal outcomes 01 / Customer lifecycle 02 / Terminal outcomes 03 / Outcomes Active · healthy, engaged · Customer lifecycle · entry 01 Active healthy, engaged entry At-Risk · model-flagged, uplift-scored · Customer lifecycle · predict 02 At-Risk model-flagged, uplift-scored predict Intervention · agent offer + outreach · Customer lifecycle · act 03 Intervention agent offer + outreach act Retained · risk resolved · Customer lifecycle · win 04 Retained risk resolved win Churned · account closed · Terminal outcomes · loss Churned account closed loss Won Back · re-engaged later · Terminal outcomes · recovery Won Back re-engaged later recovery win-back Legend active state waiting terminal success failure / exit

Main path

  • • Four ordered states carry every customer along one rail
  • • At-Risk is a prediction, not a churn event
  • • Retained is a phase reached only when the risk is resolved

Uplift targeting

  • • Intervene on the persuadable, not sure-stayers or sure-leavers
  • • A randomized holdout measures true incremental retention
  • • Budget caps bound how many customers the agent may treat

Terminal outcomes

  • • Churned is an exit, not a pause in the lifecycle
  • • Won Back re-engages a lapsed account through a later campaign
  • • Retained and Won Back are the two positive terminal states

Lifecycle diagram • Built with Archify • Create yours ↗ • Hover to trace • R route • Click to focus • +/− zoom • M radar • [/] views • P play story • T theme • E export